Long periods of low wind and solar energy output – known as dark doldrums – can jeopardize Europe’s energy security and lead to extreme market volatility. This is the conclusion of a study by British consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.
According to the report »Weathering the lulls: the risks and opportunities of dunkelflaute,« European markets are exposed to an average of 1.6 dark doldrums events per year, although there are significant regional differences. The northern markets are the most affected, especially those that rely on offshore wind farms, as they are confronted with interconnected wind farms and limited spatial diversity. Southern European markets have a lower risk of dark doldrums, as solar radiation is strong at midday even in winter.
According to Wood Mackenzie, Belgium has the highest risk of dark doldrums, with three events per year. Portugal, on the other hand, has no dark doldrums to fear. According to the analysis, most dark doldrums occur between November and January, with 41 percent lasting longer than three days.
According to the report, the market consequences range from extreme prices to dramatic shifts in the electricity supply mix. In Germany, the prices observed during just two dark doldrums events in 2024 were sufficient to generate more than half of the wholesale revenues of gas peakers. During the November 2024 event, German intraday prices rose to €820/MWh. Gas and coal-fired power generation increased dramatically, and German imports averaged 10.5 GW over three days.
»As Europe transitions to a power system dominated by variable wind and solar, understanding these extreme weather events is essential,« said Matthew Campbell, senior research analyst, European Power at Wood Mackenzie. Despite declining utilization rates, gas generation therefore remains critical to the system.
© PHOTON
