Modeling for solar and wind power in a completely renewable power supply in Germany

The Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology has modeled the expansion of solar and wind power plants in Germany for the years 2037 and 2045. The assumption for 2045 was a power supply entirely from renewable energies with an annual electricity consumption of 1,000 terawatt hours, which is almost double today's level, and a corresponding generation capacity of 700 gigawatts. The modeling forms one of the bases for the network development plan (Netzentwicklungsplan, NEP) for electricity, which is regularly updated by the German transmission system operators; the first draft for the NEP 2037/2045 was published on March 24 and submitted to the Federal Network Agency.
Separately for onshore wind energy as well as for ground-mounted and roof-mounted photovoltaics, existing and planned plants were first located with the help of various data sources and their output was deducted from the »sheath numbers« – the output targets per federal state specified in the NEP. Then, already known potentials as well as areas identified in detailed potential analyses were weighted according to various parameters such as availability, suitability, soil quality or conflict potential.
The results are summarized in maps, in each case for the existing situation and the two scenarios on which the NEP is based. In the case of rooftop PV, there are strong increases over large areas, especially in the south and west of Germany. For ground-mounted systems, there is also an increase in new installations in the south. Furthermore, a dynamic expansion is expected in the eastern federal states, as many connection applications have already been submitted there, which were also included in the study.
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