Model to reduce solar eclipse forecast errors

A team at Kassel, Germany-based Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology IEE has developed a concept to help forecast the effects of a solar eclipse on PV power generation more accurately than before.
The solution, which was first presented in June at the PV Symposium 2022 in Freiburg, combines the respective weather forecast with the degree of occultation, calculated on the basis of already known data from previous events. The team validated the last partial solar eclipse in Central Europe on June 10, 2021, using global radiation measurements from the German Weather Service (DWD) and »feed-in measurements of thousands of PV parks« provided by transmission grid operator Amprion. Not only the solar eclipse itself has a significant influence, but also the volatile self-consumption of solar power that occurs during the event, which the forecast model also takes into account.
On this data basis, the solution »will allow regional and local PV feed-in forecasts to be optimally adjusted and errors to be reduced.« The next partial solar eclipse in Central Europe will occur on October 25 this year. Although the effect of such an event may be »slower and smaller than the influence of changing cloud cover, it plays a significant role« for the overall result of the respective period.

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