IHS Markit expects around 200 GW to be added in 2022

According to estimates by the British market research company IHS Markit, global PV installations could exceed the 200 gigawatt mark for the first time next year. Compared to the volume expected for 2021, the global market »will see over 20% growth in 2022«. IHS Markit had published a forecast of 171 GW for the current year in June (a slight downward correction from a 182-GW estimate in April). Accordingly, newly installed capacity in 2022 would be expected to be at least 205 GW. This is roughly in line with the estimates of other analysts. In July, for example, the European solar industry association Solar Power Europe (SPE) had forecast market growth of 25 percent, albeit on a somewhat lower starting point of around 163 GW in the current year.
IHS Markit gives its growth forecast against the background of rising costs for PV systems. Accordingly, these have already increased by around four percent this year, and a further increase is expected for 2022. According to the analysts, prices for silicon have risen by around 200 percent between October 2020 and October 2021. Other starting materials such as glass or copper have also become considerably more expensive, which is why manufacturing costs for solar modules have risen by 15 percent since August of this year alone and why sales prices have now returned to the level of 2019. System components such as inverters or tracking systems have also become more expensive due to material shortages, especially for semiconductors. This development will continue well into the coming year.
IHS Markit sees this affecting large solar power plant projects in particular. The basis of the forecast for 2022 is therefore the enormous growth in the area of small and medium-sized systems in the private and commercial sectors, especially in China. However, there is also a considerable uncertainty factor: Above all for the large markets of China, the USA and India, there is »policy uncertainty« with regard to the framework conditions, which should be resolved by the first quarter of the coming year.

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