GTM expects the third quarter to be the lowest quarterly level of global PV demand since 2015
Post date: 09/08/2018 - 21:05
Global PV demand in 2018 will fall to 85.2 GW, forecasts GTM Research, down from former expected 103.5 GW. Chinese PV demand in 2018 has fallen from 48.2 GW to 28.8 GW, due to the impact of China’s policy change on global PV demand, announced by the government in June. China will install 141 GW between 2018 and 2022, GTM predicts, down from 206 GW.
As China’s market slows, module prices will fall more rapidly as a result of increased oversupply. Therefore, some markets will see increased installation – particularly Europe – though the benefits will not be realized until 2019 and beyond.
Notwithstanding, Asia will continue to account for at least 50 percent of the global annual install through 2020. Three key markets – China, India and Japan – alone will account for 20 percent of the global market through 2023, says GTM. The share of North American and European installs compared to global installs will remain relatively stable, averaging 16 percent and 12 percent, respectively, through 2023. The Middle East will triple its share of global installed capacity from 3 percent in 2018 to 9 percent in 2023, largely be driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Latin America will account for an average of 7 percent of global installs through 2023. The top three markets (Mexico, Brazil and Chile) will account for 81 percent of the region’s capacity additions.
According to GTM’s »Global Solar PV Demand Monitor Q2 2018«, the third quarter will see the lowest quarterly level of global PV demand since 2015. Demand in Q4 will rise by 42 percent as the Chinese market begins its recovery and the U.S. sees its strongest quarterly installations of the year, says the consultancy.