Federal Economics Minister Katharina Reiche is once again receiving external input from energy experts for her energy transition monitoring: this time, the contributions come from the Berlin think tank Epico Klimainnovation and the consulting firm Aurora Energy Research. In their report »Future-proof measures for the energy transition: 5 guidelines for energy transition monitoring« published today, the authors make it clear: »Even if the demand for electricity grows more slowly in the coming years than originally assumed, it will still be necessary to press ahead with the energy transition in the coming years.«
Many elements of the energy transition, such as the short-term expansion of renewable energies, the promotion of flexibility and the provision of controllable power, could be regarded as »no-regret« measures. In any case, they should be implemented regardless of the long-term demand volume. Even with potentially lower long-term capacities for solar energy, rapid expansion remains necessary in the medium term. Looking at wholesale prices and emissions, an ambitious expansion of solar would lead to savings as demand falls. »Fewer renewables reduce system costs in the short term, but lead to higher electricity prices and jeopardize decarbonization,« the authors warn.
In order to achieve the monitoring’s efficiency target, the authors suggest, among other things, focusing more on ground-mounted photovoltaic systems than on rooftop systems. Here, lower capital costs of 20 percent and lower grid expansion costs can be expected by 2030 compared to rooftop systems. An expansion of demand flexibility and electricity storage is also a key measure that not only contributes to a better interplay between supply and demand, but also opens up significant efficiency and savings potential.
Gas-fired power plants, on the other hand, are not necessary to the extent planned by the BMWE. In the scenarios used for the study, around ten gigawatts of controllable gas capacity could already completely close the expected supply gap in 2035.
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