China could install PV systems up to 75 GW until the end of 2021

China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) released further data concerning last year’s overall solar PV market development, says the consultancy Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd. (AECEA). Accordingly, the 48.2 GW deployed during 2020 are made up by 32.7 GW of utility-scale systems, 10.1 GW of residential PV and 5.4 GW of commercial & industrial (C&I) PV systems. Today’s 253 GW of cumulatively installed PV capacities, roughly one third of the total global, makes up approximately 11.5 percent of the nation’s entire power generation capacities and contributed about 3.4 percent to the total power generated.
According to AECEA's assessment, it seems as if the Chinese government is inclined to continue financially supporting residential PV installations with an annual earmarked budget of up to CNY 200 to 300 million ($31 to 46 million). Such a budget, if approved, shall be sufficient to support 10 GW or possibly even up to 14 GW until the the end of 2021.
AECEA estimates a full-year demand to be between 60 to 75 GW, thus representing an increase of 25 to 55 percent compared to last year. This includes amongst others the remainder of 55 GW of grid-parity projects approved in 2019/2020 and 8 GW of bidding-converted-parity projects which are subject to a December 2021 deadline. Furthermore the 2020 carry-over bidding projects to be installed by June 30, plus pure provincial developments like in the Province of Yunnan 3 GW and the Guangxi Autonomous Region 1 GW by the end of this year. Moreover, AECEA expects two integrated bases with each 1 to 2 GW shall be auctioned by NEA in the coming weeks.
AECEA anticipates that near future utility-scale project development will increasingly feature the combination of different renewable energy technologies, like hybrid solar and wind parks combined with biomass and hydro power, or executed as an Agri-PV plant, as Fish-Farm-PV, Floating PV, or combined with electrical energy storage devices in an attempt to support grid operations or to support the on-site production of green hydrogen. »Single standing utility-scale PV systems designed to just generate power might be soon no longer sufficient to receive official project approval,« expects the company.
China’s National Energy Administration released a draft version of its envisaged national unified renewable energy power consumption responsibility targets for the year 2021 and the 2022-2030 period. Accordingly, the share of non-hydro power consumption shall reach 25.9 percent by 2030, says the consultancy. In terms of cumulatively installed wind/PV power generation capacities this suggest 1,600 to 1,700 GW by 2030. »This means that roughly 1,000 to 1,100 GW has to be added between 2021 through 2030.«
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