BNEF: In 2022 more than 200 GW of solar will be installed

British consultancy Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has published its forecasts for global PV additions in 2022. According to the report, in a medium scenario, about 228 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity will be connected to the grid by the end of the year, while the range of BNEF’s estimate is 204 to 252 GW.
For 2021, the company expects new installations of about 183 GW. Last year, BNEF – like virtually all analysts – cites polysilicon production as a serious bottleneck. Combined with strong demand, this has driven module prices up to 27.8 U.S. cents per watt for standard monocrystalline modules. However, BNEF expects silicon production to increase 39 percent in 2022 compared to 2021. Supply would then be sufficient to produce solar products with 300 GW. The price of silicon would also fall. Accordingly, module prices would drop to 25 cents in the first half of 2022 and another one to two cents in the second half.
The largest PV markets this year were China and the US. BNEF expects the residential and commercial/industrial rooftop sector in China, in particular, to drive the country’s additions to a record 81 to 92 GW this year.
In Northern European markets (Poland, Denmark, Germany), companies will increasingly sign power purchase agreements (PPAs) for solar power plants in 2022, according to BNEF’s analysis, as well as in Southern and Central Europe. In the Iberian market, for example, BNEF recorded PPAs totaling 1.4 GW last year, representing 72 percent of all agreements signed in Europe. Across Europe, BNEF sees this segment increasing to 13.1 GW by 2025.
The consultancy expects a significant increase in production capacity in countries outside China. However, it will take »some time for large-scale production to ramp up.« According to the report, India has by far the most significant production base for solar cells and modules outside of China. The country currently has 12.4 GW of production capacity for modules and 3.3 GW for solar cells, while the government plans to add significant capacity for polysilicon and modules. In a November 2021 auction, for example, $600 million in grants for production facilities were up for bid. The grant was ultimately shared by three companies, each of which plans to build module production capacity of four GW.
© PHOTON