BloombergNEF: Trump can’t stop renewables

Photon
© Rolf Schulten / PHOTON

The consulting firm BloombergNEF (BNEF) assumes that the costs of wind, solar and battery technologies will continue to fall until 2025. According to the latest edition of the “Levelized Cost of Electricity” report, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind power plants will fall by four percent, for offshore wind power plants by nine percent, for solar parks (without tracking) by two percent and for battery storage by eleven percent. At 35 dollars (34 euros) per megawatt hour, the costs for solar power are the lowest, followed by onshore wind energy at 37 dollars (36 euros) and offshore wind energy at 79 dollars (76 euros). According to BNEF, new wind and solar parks undercut the generation costs of new coal and gas-fired power plants in almost all markets. “New solar power plants are within reach of new US gas-fired power plants, even without subsidies. This is remarkable because gas prices in the US are only a quarter of what they are in Europe and Asia. This sets the bar very high for what is possible even in today’s market,” says Amar Vasdev, lead author of the report. “This opens up the possibility that solar energy will become even more attractive in the coming years, especially when the US starts exporting LPG and exposes its protected gas market to global price competition.”

BloomberNEF

© BloomberNEF

For 2026, BNEF expects costs to continue to fall significantly to 25 dollars (24 euros) per megawatt hour or 2.4 cents per kilowatt hour for solar power. Although the overcapacity built up by China has led to protectionism in the form of import tariffs, these could only temporarily slow down the fall in costs. Modules continue to be sold at or below production costs and there are no signs that the overcapacity in the solar supply chain will be reduced in the short term. “China is exporting green energy technology at such low prices that the rest of the world is thinking about putting up barriers to protect its own industry,” said Matthias Kimmel, Head of Energy at BNEF. “But the general trend towards cost reductions is so strong that no one can stop it, not even President Trump.” BNEF expects LCOE to fall by 22 percent for offshore wind, 26 percent for onshore wind, 31 percent for solar farms and 49 percent for battery storage by 2035.

© PHOTON

BNEF
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